# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 11:08:58 GMT. 24h change +60.5pp, 24h volume $343.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tirante-norrie-2026-05-08
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tirante-norrie-2026-05-08
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T11:08:58.793Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +29.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +60.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $343.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $345.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $162.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Cameron Norrie in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Cameron Norrie.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 60.5pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x64c5…d255` — 18,565 shares
- `0x45e4…7e20` — 14,999.967 shares
- `0x5912…6f45` — 11,648 shares
- `0x3555…ba40` — 10,391.07 shares
- `0x83d2…d196` — 7,428.349 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb0da…f3f0` — 27,639.935 shares
- `0x4f75…af7e` — 19,215.882 shares
- `0x698b…4426` — 6,620.918 shares
- `0x8cc2…eaef` — 6,490 shares
- `0x31c1…7047` — 5,016.485 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 38 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T23:00:18.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T11:08:05.000Z |
| Range | 39¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +52.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tirante-norrie-2026-05-08` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Cameron Norrie — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T11:08:58.793Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tirante-norrie-2026-05-08.
```

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