# Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 23:12:15 GMT. 24h change +65.5pp, 24h volume $147.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tobon-ribeiro-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tobon-ribeiro-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T23:12:15.802Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +65.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $147.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $147.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $470.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Miguel Tobon and Eduardo Ribeiro in the Santos, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 9:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Miguel Tobon' if Miguel Tobon advances against Eduardo Ribeiro.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Eduardo Ribeiro' if Eduardo Ribeiro advances against Miguel Tobon.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x5268…135d` — 3,089.03 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 2,879.279 shares
- `0xd218…b5c9` — 2,371.09 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 1,776.386 shares
- `0x7cb2…f12f` — 399.99 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x2a67…d370` — 16,342.474 shares
- `0x27b0…fc67` — 9,999.959 shares
- `0x5fea…78b1` — 6,750.869 shares
- `0xfb60…677e` — 3,300.006 shares
- `0x9a3f…914a` — 2,999.987 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 65 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T20:00:06.000Z |
| Range | 32¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tobon-ribeiro-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T23:12:15.802Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tobon-ribeiro-2026-05-05.
```

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