# Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Wawrinka

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 15:19:29 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $229.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-travagl-wawrink-2026-05-04
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-travagl-wawrink-2026-05-04
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T15:19:29.349Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $229.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $229.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $454.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Stefano Travaglia and Stan Wawrinka in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Stefano Travaglia' if Stefano Travaglia advances against Stan Wawrinka.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Stefano Travaglia.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe4d3…c2f0` — 12,956.36 shares
- `0xe736…9d9f` — 5,000 shares
- `0xd5d4…8b32` — 2,222 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 2,104.018 shares
- `0x9d8a…5201` — 1,999.951 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x14f1…4a46` — 12,000 shares
- `0x51eb…6bfa` — 2,715.002 shares
- `0xa72a…93fd` — 2,624.52 shares
- `0x5428…e46a` — 625.005 shares
- `0xed19…83ba` — 322.23 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 11 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T05:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T15:00:07.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 90¢ |
| Net change | -54.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-travagl-wawrink-2026-05-04` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Wawrinka — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T15:19:29.349Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-travagl-wawrink-2026-05-04.
```

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