# Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 18:28:48 GMT. 24h change -56.5pp, 24h volume $377.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tsitsip-machac-2026-05-06
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-tsitsip-machac-2026-05-06
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T18:28:48.576Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -56.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $377.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $380.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $653.0K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Tomas Machac in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Tomas Machac.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 25%): UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x83d2…d196` — 25,318.532 shares
- `0x18d2…a67d` — 20,000 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 15,797.564 shares
- `0x10ff…5088` — 11,113.806 shares
- `0x0bfd…a4bb` — 8,516.639 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 32,247 shares
- `0x9ad6…4251` — 26,826.97 shares
- `0x336b…1233` — 13,113.584 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 12,186 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 11,490.659 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 75 |
| Window start | 2026-05-04T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T18:28:11.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 60¢ |
| Net change | -59.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-tsitsip-machac-2026-05-06` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T18:28:48.576Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-tsitsip-machac-2026-05-06.
```

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