# Santos: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Ryan Dickerson

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 21% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 01:18:53 GMT. 24h change -63.5pp, 24h volume $128.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-varilla-dickers-2026-05-05
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-varilla-dickers-2026-05-05
**Category:** Other
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T01:18:53.246Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **21¢** (21%) |
| Δ 1h | -69.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -63.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $128.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $129.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $107.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Pablo Varillas and Ryan Dickerson in the Santos, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 9:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Juan Pablo Varillas' if Juan Pablo Varillas advances against Ryan Dickerson.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Ryan Dickerson' if Ryan Dickerson advances against Juan Pablo Varillas.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 85%): Probability moved down 63.5pp in 24h with 1.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x27b0…fc67` — 20,099.988 shares
- `0xa362…a3e3` — 19,975.796 shares
- `0x38c2…d3a7` — 10,146.647 shares
- `0x710c…78ea` — 1,904.08 shares
- `0x54b2…0f1e` — 1,339.286 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x9ad6…4251` — 14,855 shares
- `0x2005…75ea` — 10,312.496 shares
- `0x5268…135d` — 7,842.666 shares
- `0x507e…beae` — 4,957.655 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 3,689.768 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 70 |
| Window start | 2026-05-03T05:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T01:18:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 89¢ |
| Net change | -50.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-varilla-dickers-2026-05-05` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Santos: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Ryan Dickerson — 21% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T01:18:53.246Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-varilla-dickers-2026-05-05.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*