# Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 40% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 20 May 2026 20:51:12 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $9.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/atp-wawrink-michels-2026-05-20
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/atp-wawrink-michels-2026-05-20
**Category:** Sports
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-20T20:51:12.159Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **40¢** (40%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $9.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $10.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $69.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market refers to the tennis match between Stan Wawrinka and Alex Michelsen in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Stan Wawrinka' if Stan Wawrinka advances against Alex Michelsen.
> 
> This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Stan Wawrinka.
> 
> If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
> 
> If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
> 
> The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8f3c…2f57` — 25,437.448 shares
- `0x204f…5e14` — 22,502.961 shares
- `0xfe78…0319` — 9,318.331 shares
- `0x5ba6…0f07` — 7,000 shares
- `0x288c…3641` — 6,212.808 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0997…c9f6` — 29,918.81 shares
- `0x13f0…a50f` — 28,064 shares
- `0x6fc4…c89d` — 19,620 shares
- `0x2c33…0563` — 10,405.251 shares
- `0xcd3f…8e2b` — 9,964.55 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 44 |
| Window start | 2026-05-18T23:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T17:35:08.000Z |
| Range | 20¢ → 42¢ |
| Net change | -17.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=atp-wawrink-michels-2026-05-20` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen — 40% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-20T20:51:12.159Z from https://orrery.me/markets/atp-wawrink-michels-2026-05-20.
```

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