# Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 10:43:37 GMT. 24h change -0.1pp, 24h volume $333.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bill-clinton-divorce-by-june-30
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bill-clinton-divorce-by-june-30
**Category:** Culture
**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T10:43:37.506Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 1w | -1.1pp |
| 24h volume | $333.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $438.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** Jun 30, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.
> 
> The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 5%): Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x03a6…97e6` — 4,422 shares
- `0x6a4e…65dd` — 4,375 shares
- `0xaace…24c9` — 1,651.148 shares
- `0x2dbd…ce61` — 1,118 shares
- `0x5386…c6fc` — 1,112 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xa745…8ca6` — 3,796.58 shares
- `0x75e7…9080` — 1,999.957 shares
- `0x8998…32be` — 1,897.928 shares
- `0x4337…8882` — 1,111 shares
- `0x2188…72e9` — 1,110 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T11:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T10:00:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 2¢ |
| Net change | -1.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bill-clinton-divorce-by-june-30` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T10:43:37.506Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bill-clinton-divorce-by-june-30.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*