# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 02:56:43 GMT. 24h change +0.0pp, 24h volume $244.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-16
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T02:56:43.468Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $244.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $290.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $56.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 13h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xaa9a…3b3e` — 21,600.42 shares
- `0x1b1a…3852` — 12,000 shares
- `0xdea2…a81e` — 7,955.27 shares
- `0x2322…3ede` — 6,795.105 shares
- `0x19fc…b4e3` — 5,999.568 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6dec…cf0c` — 72,889.801 shares
- `0xe157…51eb` — 28,308.494 shares
- `0x9e9a…5d99` — 9,000 shares
- `0x7152…faac` — 8,810.82 shares
- `0xddcc…8edf` — 7,764.628 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 154 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T02:56:09.000Z |
| Range | 94¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +5.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T02:56:43.468Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-16.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*