# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:02:22 GMT. 24h change +1.7pp, 24h volume $347.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-22-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-22-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:02:22.669Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.7pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $347.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $433.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $65.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 10,014.62 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 7,380.694 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 7,269.51 shares
- `0x3e3d…d674` — 6,456.393 shares
- `0x08e4…e173` — 5,040.22 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe157…51eb` — 68,108.455 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 17,302.22 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 12,581.091 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 12,208.845 shares
- `0x5f65…2a00` — 9,361.17 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 163 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T18:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T11:43:06.000Z |
| Range | 77¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +6.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-22-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:02:22.669Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-22-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*