# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 98% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 06:44:33 GMT. 24h change -1.6pp, 24h volume $202.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-23-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-23-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T06:44:33.975Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **98¢** (98%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $202.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $281.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $40.4K |
| Spread | 0.40pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 9h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 28,786.56 shares
- `0x0d75…396f` — 11,192.94 shares
- `0xe744…f96e` — 11,164 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 9,999.991 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 7,175.92 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 40,576.79 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 18,336.125 shares
- `0x64ce…944b` — 9,999.958 shares
- `0xa97e…24ff` — 7,925.284 shares
- `0xa6c1…384e` — 7,105.547 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 157 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T18:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T05:30:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +23.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-23-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? — 98% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T06:44:33.975Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-23-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*