# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 04:29:18 GMT. 24h change +1.0pp, 24h volume $141.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-3
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T04:29:18.306Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $141.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $210.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.9K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 12h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 13,284.956 shares
- `0xaa9a…3b3e` — 5,486.31 shares
- `0x3e3d…d674` — 5,334.673 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 5,000 shares
- `0xbce2…0ab4` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xc131…f290` — 44,999.877 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 33,333.236 shares
- `0xb6c1…0a4c` — 15,099.139 shares
- `0x58fd…43a6` — 8,440.772 shares
- `0xfce1…c9bf` — 3,333.333 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 156 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T04:29:05.000Z |
| Range | 72¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +15.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 3? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T04:29:18.306Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-74k-on-may-3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*