# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 05:02:01 GMT. 24h change +3.9pp, 24h volume $228.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-15
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T05:02:01.025Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +3.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $228.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $319.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $59.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xaa9a…3b3e` — 21,561.86 shares
- `0x7fd7…5861` — 10,123.81 shares
- `0xe744…f96e` — 8,321.1 shares
- `0x3e3d…d674` — 7,834.698 shares
- `0x0d75…396f` — 6,995.042 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6ef9…afac` — 48,039.19 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 35,144.56 shares
- `0x1543…baaf` — 25,579.62 shares
- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 18,061.093 shares
- `0x7152…faac` — 17,587.614 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 158 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T05:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 87¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +12.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T05:02:01.025Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*