# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 95% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 10:38:58 GMT. 24h change +8.2pp, 24h volume $269.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-21
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T10:38:58.692Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **95¢** (95%) |
| Δ 1h | -3.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +8.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $269.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $302.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $34.8K |
| Spread | 0.70pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4699…e03c` — 9,952.75 shares
- `0x4012…a72d` — 9,383.341 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 8,811.904 shares
- `0x88b4…cf0b` — 8,364.817 shares
- `0x5822…8774` — 8,064.88 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x416b…950a` — 36,925.32 shares
- `0x25d8…a71f` — 18,517.528 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 11,624.682 shares
- `0x5b1f…3086` — 9,751.487 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 3,474.176 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 162 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T10:38:05.000Z |
| Range | 54¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +3.2pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? — 95% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T10:38:58.692Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-21.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*