# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:02:23 GMT. 24h change +18.4pp, 24h volume $466.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-22-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-22-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:02:23.968Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | +18.4pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $466.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $559.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $411.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 84%): Probability moved up 18.4pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x996a…e3cc` — 29,777.33 shares
- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 25,286.268 shares
- `0xbce2…0ab4` — 19,192.594 shares
- `0xa868…2038` — 16,001.12 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 10,783.549 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x22e6…409f` — 22,000 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 19,999.924 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 15,632.319 shares
- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 15,358.359 shares
- `0xc41e…e2e9` — 14,999.888 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 166 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T18:00:14.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T14:59:04.000Z |
| Range | 55¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +15.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-22-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:02:23.968Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-22-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*