# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 35% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 09:40:45 GMT. 24h change -55.0pp, 24h volume $104.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-23-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-23-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T09:40:45.511Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **35¢** (35%) |
| Δ 1h | -18.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -55.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $104.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $129.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 55.0pp in 24h with 3.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 6h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd519…932c` — 26,999.96 shares
- `0xda6b…a403` — 10,814.345 shares
- `0xad26…589c` — 4,500 shares
- `0x4d06…b2ea` — 3,587.992 shares
- `0x9473…3b20` — 2,903 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 22,240.174 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 9,889.46 shares
- `0x5822…8774` — 7,792.576 shares
- `0x66d7…5b7b` — 5,830.965 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 5,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 161 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T18:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T09:40:04.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | -47.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-23-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? — 35% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T09:40:45.511Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-23-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*