# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 81% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 26 May 2026 17:07:24 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $92.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-26-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-26-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-26T17:07:24.481Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **81¢** (81%) |
| Δ 1h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $92.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $114.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $28.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 26, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 48,077.886 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 20,608.3 shares
- `0xbce2…0ab4` — 17,908.89 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 12,117.453 shares
- `0x6d34…dfb5` — 11,613.89 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x488e…ea2e` — 26,151.954 shares
- `0x56d5…10a6` — 20,189.51 shares
- `0x23ea…672b` — 17,804.258 shares
- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 17,763.228 shares
- `0xc086…b1af` — 16,489.967 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 160 |
| Window start | 2026-05-19T17:00:16.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-26T07:50:05.000Z |
| Range | 28¢ → 96¢ |
| Net change | +21.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-26-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? — 81% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-26T17:07:24.481Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-26-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*