# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 10:45:50 GMT. 24h change +2.5pp, 24h volume $131.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-3
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T10:45:50.098Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $131.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $206.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $31.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 5h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 26,539.732 shares
- `0x44d0…5167` — 10,200 shares
- `0xbe8a…97c0` — 9,181 shares
- `0x4d8a…2953` — 6,314.651 shares
- `0x3b34…cca8` — 6,087.663 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd519…932c` — 44,444.103 shares
- `0xc131…f290` — 19,799.837 shares
- `0xaf34…dc6e` — 10,999.4 shares
- `0x22e6…409f` — 10,731.87 shares
- `0x3379…f0b4` — 9,999.958 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 162 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T10:45:07.000Z |
| Range | 43¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +31.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T10:45:50.098Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-76k-on-may-3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*