# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 14 May 2026 14:09:33 GMT. 24h change +15.6pp, 24h volume $314.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-14
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-14
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-14T14:09:33.797Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +3.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +15.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $314.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $391.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $43.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 14, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 15.6pp in 24h with 7.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 2h.

## Recent large trades on this market

| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 14:07 UTC | `Unconscious-Collection` | BUY | NO | $0.07 |

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4012…a72d` — 18,822.504 shares
- `0xbe8a…97c0` — 9,775 shares
- `0x2812…05e6` — 8,163.058 shares
- `0x5f65…2a00` — 7,143.559 shares
- `0x88b4…cf0b` — 5,913.993 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0681…f713` — 88,299.794 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 20,110.529 shares
- `0x9532…9350` — 8,328.07 shares
- `0x6ef9…afac` — 3,554.07 shares
- `0x6e85…c104` — 3,197.234 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-05-07T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-14T14:07:05.000Z |
| Range | 45¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +48.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-14` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-14T14:09:33.797Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-14.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*