# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 99% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 07:58:46 GMT. 24h change +13.3pp, 24h volume $208.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-15
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T07:58:46.776Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **99¢** (99%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +13.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $208.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $249.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $42.3K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 13.3pp in 24h with 4.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbe8a…97c0` — 7,224.208 shares
- `0x0d75…396f` — 6,649.98 shares
- `0x08e4…e173` — 5,981.661 shares
- `0xff73…67e9` — 5,169.994 shares
- `0x780a…2d1d` — 5,104.288 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x55be…dca3` — 23,242.687 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 18,655.86 shares
- `0x6ef9…afac` — 16,259.222 shares
- `0xe157…51eb` — 7,505.47 shares
- `0xe74d…22fd` — 6,661.57 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 160 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T07:57:04.000Z |
| Range | 65¢ → 99¢ |
| Net change | +28.3pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? — 99% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T07:58:46.776Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*