# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 80% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 08:54:47 GMT. 24h change -16.3pp, 24h volume $241.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-16
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T08:54:47.122Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **80¢** (80%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -16.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $241.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $301.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $46.6K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 16.3pp in 24h with 5.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 7h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x55be…dca3` — 26,226.699 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 15,173.196 shares
- `0xf70e…81df` — 11,744.18 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 5,000 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 4,040.353 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 15,144.158 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 14,106.087 shares
- `0xe157…51eb` — 7,089.832 shares
- `0xb4fc…a926` — 5,962.963 shares
- `0x6dec…cf0c` — 5,738.95 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 159 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T18:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T08:54:04.000Z |
| Range | 51¢ → 97¢ |
| Net change | +29.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? — 80% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T08:54:47.122Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-16.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*