# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 36% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 22 May 2026 17:02:22 GMT. 24h change +6.0pp, 24h volume $32.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-22-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-22-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-22T17:02:22.262Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **36¢** (36%) |
| Δ 1h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +6.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $32.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $44.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $27.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 22, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xddcd…725f` — 13,772.35 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 9,999.97 shares
- `0x9b6b…9a8a` — 9,499.977 shares
- `0xde6e…0169` — 7,277.99 shares
- `0xb911…7c31` — 4,337.308 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 21,675.954 shares
- `0x996a…e3cc` — 16,133.01 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 8,707.1 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 7,038.941 shares
- `0x699d…0501` — 6,886.886 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 126 |
| Window start | 2026-05-15T18:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-20T22:52:06.000Z |
| Range | 27¢ → 67¢ |
| Net change | -29.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-22-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? — 36% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-22T17:02:22.262Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-22-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*