# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 27 May 2026 08:44:15 GMT. 24h change -14.8pp, 24h volume $218.6K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-27-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-27-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-27T08:44:15.362Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.7pp |
| Δ 24h | -14.8pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $218.6K |
| Lifetime volume | $248.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $32.0K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 27, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 7h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xafe6…8192` — 20,144.826 shares
- `0xf367…212e` — 17,883.51 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 10,594.266 shares
- `0x078f…796c` — 7,849.336 shares
- `0xce24…6239` — 7,803.11 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbce2…0ab4` — 43,152.52 shares
- `0x55be…dca3` — 11,514.761 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 8,229.012 shares
- `0x5aa2…d7d0` — 5,999.997 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 5,088.43 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 161 |
| Window start | 2026-05-20T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-27T08:24:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -48.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-27-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-27T08:44:15.362Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-27-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*