# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 65% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 03 May 2026 07:56:08 GMT. 24h change -2.0pp, 24h volume $88.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-3
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-3
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-03T07:56:08.461Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **65¢** (65%) |
| Δ 1h | +5.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -2.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $88.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $119.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $34.3K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 3, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbc1f…7631` — 12,399.56 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 9,924.199 shares
- `0x8be4…b795` — 6,163.827 shares
- `0x6967…84bf` — 4,400 shares
- `0x5f65…2a00` — 2,480.363 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3885…ca77` — 23,422.899 shares
- `0x3379…f0b4` — 6,530 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 5,593.83 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 3,999.987 shares
- `0xad26…589c` — 1,902.386 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-26T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-03T03:48:03.000Z |
| Range | 16¢ → 88¢ |
| Net change | +14.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-3` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? — 65% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-03T07:56:08.461Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-3.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*