# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 97% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 04:42:24 GMT. 24h change +8.9pp, 24h volume $166.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-5
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T04:42:24.634Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **97¢** (97%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +8.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $166.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $200.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $33.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 91%): Probability moved up 8.9pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 25,475.952 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 24,410.961 shares
- `0xbc1f…7631` — 9,535.074 shares
- `0xdb5a…3965` — 8,559.382 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 6,779.858 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xb4fc…a926` — 11,999.988 shares
- `0x34ab…840e` — 11,389.86 shares
- `0xbf72…6378` — 10,904.478 shares
- `0xad26…589c` — 7,431.969 shares
- `0xcae6…a0e7` — 7,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 154 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T19:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T04:41:05.000Z |
| Range | 22¢ → 97¢ |
| Net change | +47.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? — 97% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T04:42:24.634Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*