# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 05:43:25 GMT. 24h change +9.2pp, 24h volume $128.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-6
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-6
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T05:43:25.626Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.6pp |
| Δ 24h | +9.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $128.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $162.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $68.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 90%): Probability moved up 9.2pp in 24h with 1.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x4699…e03c` — 20,000 shares
- `0x3e3d…d674` — 6,772.062 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 6,046.723 shares
- `0x905a…dff1` — 6,000 shares
- `0x08e4…e173` — 5,911.345 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x51eb…6bfa` — 33,768.66 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 16,666.631 shares
- `0xde6e…0169` — 11,356.006 shares
- `0x4931…c75e` — 6,774.117 shares
- `0x5360…1f6f` — 6,502.019 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:17:04.000Z |
| Range | 25¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +66.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-6` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T05:43:25.626Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-6.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*