# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 94% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 18:28:02 GMT. 24h change -1.5pp, 24h volume $199.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-8
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-8
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T18:28:02.456Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **94¢** (94%) |
| Δ 1h | +6.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $199.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $251.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $9.9K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 8, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 22h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x55be…dca3` — 72,598.79 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 32,367.742 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 6,307.94 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 4,999.996 shares
- `0x88b4…cf0b` — 4,638.643 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xec32…99ba` — 121,349.689 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 5,555.557 shares
- `0x2cce…6e85` — 4,044.197 shares
- `0xf800…daf7` — 3,073.201 shares
- `0x5cf3…7be2` — 2,816.801 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 146 |
| Window start | 2026-05-01T17:00:17.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T18:27:05.000Z |
| Range | 49¢ → 98¢ |
| Net change | +41.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-8` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? — 94% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T18:28:02.456Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-78k-on-may-8.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*