# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 27% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 14:47:53 GMT. 24h change -44.5pp, 24h volume $275.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-13
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T14:47:53.646Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **27¢** (27%) |
| Δ 1h | -15.7pp |
| Δ 24h | -44.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $275.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $297.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $74.0K |
| Spread | 0.90pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 44.5pp in 24h with 3.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8be4…b795` — 11,720.962 shares
- `0xbc1f…7631` — 6,062.905 shares
- `0x87ee…597f` — 4,933.995 shares
- `0x02c1…2e70` — 3,550.384 shares
- `0x3486…49ee` — 1,658.022 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 14,122.777 shares
- `0x5faf…1183` — 8,999.999 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 5,954.465 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 4,999.962 shares
- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 3,826.117 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 167 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T14:46:06.000Z |
| Range | 21¢ → 95¢ |
| Net change | -46.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? — 27% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T14:47:53.646Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*