# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 16:04:32 GMT. 24h change -77.5pp, 24h volume $411.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-15
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T16:04:32.244Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -4.5pp |
| Δ 24h | -77.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $411.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $440.6K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $82.6K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 77.5pp in 24h with 5.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xafe6…8192` — 30,682.887 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 12,321.219 shares
- `0x0be5…cf29` — 10,250.24 shares
- `0x0247…a5ed` — 6,307.084 shares
- `0xddcd…725f` — 5,411.95 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 27,735.302 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 19,688.292 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 10,063.28 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 6,015.318 shares
- `0xe9c7…147a` — 5,921 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 168 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T16:03:18.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 90¢ |
| Net change | -48.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T16:04:32.244Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*