# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 11:43:00 GMT. 24h change -68.7pp, 24h volume $223.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-16
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-16
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T11:43:00.441Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.3pp |
| Δ 24h | -68.7pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $223.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $248.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $26.3K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x7d49…4f7c` — 9,002.19 shares
- `0x72a0…c059` — 8,582.558 shares
- `0x25ea…fa5f` — 5,680 shares
- `0x4ecd…2e83` — 5,020.141 shares
- `0x29ea…701e` — 4,662.43 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 24,599.977 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 14,555.391 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 13,083.392 shares
- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 11,679.493 shares
- `0x19fc…b4e3` — 5,999.63 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 161 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T19:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T11:42:20.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 83¢ |
| Net change | -48.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-16` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T11:43:00.441Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-16.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*