# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 02:37:51 GMT. 24h change -4.3pp, 24h volume $55.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-23-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-23-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T02:37:51.238Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $55.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $68.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $31.5K |
| Spread | 0.20pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 72%): Probability moved down 4.3pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 13h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc52c…6732` — 32,043.247 shares
- `0x29ea…701e` — 26,888.44 shares
- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 13,895.003 shares
- `0xa97e…24ff` — 4,782.245 shares
- `0x3879…d8c3` — 3,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 11,199.21 shares
- `0x7fd7…5861` — 10,209.899 shares
- `0xa868…2038` — 8,185.86 shares
- `0x19cd…7a82` — 6,006.006 shares
- `0x23be…f444` — 6,006.006 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 147 |
| Window start | 2026-05-16T18:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-22T19:10:03.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 65¢ |
| Net change | -39.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-23-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T02:37:51.238Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-23-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*