# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 51% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 05:58:28 GMT. 24h change +39.0pp, 24h volume $152.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-4
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T05:58:28.718Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **51¢** (51%) |
| Δ 1h | -9.0pp |
| Δ 24h | +39.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $152.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $179.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $21.6K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 9,049.619 shares
- `0x1a47…235b` — 5,000 shares
- `0xf5bc…2c49` — 3,682.074 shares
- `0x928a…8044` — 3,499.986 shares
- `0xd3d2…fe85` — 2,017.53 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xbc1f…7631` — 6,044.426 shares
- `0x6469…b890` — 4,614.513 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 4,309.655 shares
- `0x7c87…d99a` — 3,334.249 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 3,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 157 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T05:57:04.000Z |
| Range | 6¢ → 60¢ |
| Net change | +32.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? — 51% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T05:58:28.718Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-4.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*