# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 89% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 12:00:31 GMT. 24h change -5.0pp, 24h volume $210.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-7
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-7
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T12:00:31.736Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **89¢** (89%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -5.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $210.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $242.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $24.7K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 30,385.258 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 14,131.613 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 5,840.176 shares
- `0x35dc…f5e6` — 5,616.3 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 4,999.996 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xec32…99ba` — 31,497.126 shares
- `0xf613…b2db` — 8,629.858 shares
- `0xd519…932c` — 5,555.466 shares
- `0x7fd3…e662` — 4,999.991 shares
- `0xf367…212e` — 3,618.199 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 163 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T17:00:11.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T11:59:03.000Z |
| Range | 14¢ → 94¢ |
| Net change | +72.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-7` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? — 89% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T12:00:31.736Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-7.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*