# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 100% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 16:01:25 GMT. 24h change +44.5pp, 24h volume $249.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-9
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-9
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T16:01:25.391Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **100¢** (100%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.8pp |
| Δ 24h | +44.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $249.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $286.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $136.4K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 93%): Probability moved up 44.5pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8be4…b795` — 14,326.081 shares
- `0x8fef…06c9` — 11,241.964 shares
- `0x6967…84bf` — 6,999.997 shares
- `0x64d2…00d0` — 5,800 shares
- `0xb7cd…6827` — 5,116.19 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xd519…932c` — 9,722.166 shares
- `0x83d9…465c` — 8,895.247 shares
- `0x2c2c…90d4` — 6,706.773 shares
- `0x3217…f28d` — 5,000 shares
- `0x1f6b…267e` — 3,703.126 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:09.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T16:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 30¢ → 100¢ |
| Net change | +49.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-9` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 9? — 100% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T16:01:25.391Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-80k-on-may-9.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*