# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 16:03:43 GMT. 24h change -10.9pp, 24h volume $268.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-13
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T16:03:43.985Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -10.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $268.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $286.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $289.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 82%): Probability moved down 10.9pp in 24h with 0.9× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xc52c…6732` — 28,924.953 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 13,671.13 shares
- `0x615e…5295` — 9,939.528 shares
- `0x29ea…701e` — 8,805.879 shares
- `0x6227…c264` — 7,999.995 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 16,911.343 shares
- `0x8245…ebed` — 10,000 shares
- `0x4ad6…464c` — 7,838.06 shares
- `0x699d…0501` — 6,356.356 shares
- `0x72a0…c059` — 6,301.979 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T16:02:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 55¢ |
| Net change | -46.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T16:03:43.985Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*