# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Fri, 15 May 2026 14:49:00 GMT. 24h change -17.3pp, 24h volume $486.4K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-15
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-15
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-15T14:49:00.021Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -17.3pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $486.4K |
| Lifetime volume | $527.0K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $22.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 15, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xe907…cff6` — 56,066.323 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 45,840.903 shares
- `0xc52c…6732` — 14,335.847 shares
- `0x25ea…fa5f` — 11,788.86 shares
- `0xaa4c…7bfd` — 8,094.87 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x5fcf…7a5b` — 40,561.836 shares
- `0xf705…3ca7` — 28,492.67 shares
- `0xbce2…0ab4` — 24,993.01 shares
- `0x4f4d…ebde` — 22,400 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 15,455.54 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 166 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:04.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-15T14:48:18.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 53¢ |
| Net change | -27.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-15` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-15T14:49:00.021Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-15.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*