# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 21 May 2026 04:28:45 GMT. 24h change -3.2pp, 24h volume $2.5K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-21
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-21
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-21T04:28:45.422Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.2pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $2.5K |
| Lifetime volume | $13.2K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $15.4K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 21, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 12h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xafe6…8192` — 16,966.114 shares
- `0x5a58…dd44` — 15,117.343 shares
- `0xbe43…3e8d` — 12,999.906 shares
- `0x5e06…9754` — 11,683.753 shares
- `0x3d8d…a7e9` — 10,313.13 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xaa9a…3b3e` — 21,411.14 shares
- `0x7fd7…5861` — 10,190.472 shares
- `0xfd9b…6eea` — 9,100 shares
- `0xe744…f96e` — 6,618.91 shares
- `0x23be…f444` — 6,008.902 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 156 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-21T04:28:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -49.8pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-21` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-21T04:28:45.422Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-21.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*