# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 5% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 15:07:21 GMT. 24h change -9.0pp, 24h volume $255.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-5
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T15:07:21.457Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **5¢** (5%) |
| Δ 1h | -6.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -9.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $255.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $320.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $28.5K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 92%): Probability moved down 9.0pp in 24h with 9.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xafe6…8192` — 20,459.994 shares
- `0x50f6…bce9` — 6,766.819 shares
- `0x0a55…1d25` — 5,617.338 shares
- `0xbf72…6378` — 4,981.36 shares
- `0xf367…212e` — 3,564.481 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 21,580.211 shares
- `0x8be4…b795` — 20,582.414 shares
- `0xf70e…81df` — 9,823.041 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 5,074.777 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 5,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 165 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T19:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T15:06:05.000Z |
| Range | 2¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -41.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? — 5% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T15:07:21.457Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-5.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*