# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 36% implied probability of YES as of Thu, 07 May 2026 13:04:45 GMT. 24h change -4.0pp, 24h volume $66.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-7
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-7
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-07T13:04:45.070Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **36¢** (36%) |
| Δ 1h | +19.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $66.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $81.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $17.8K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 7, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 3h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x0be5…cf29` — 15,718.842 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 9,393.275 shares
- `0xad26…589c` — 7,500 shares
- `0x9b6b…9a8a` — 3,900 shares
- `0x8970…36b5` — 3,422.13 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x3885…ca77` — 38,035.595 shares
- `0x8be4…b795` — 18,513.674 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 2,568.68 shares
- `0xdb5a…3965` — 2,262.981 shares
- `0x3690…e16f` — 1,852.033 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 165 |
| Window start | 2026-04-30T17:00:15.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-07T13:03:10.000Z |
| Range | 5¢ → 63¢ |
| Net change | +1.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-7` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? — 36% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-07T13:04:45.070Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-7.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*