# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 09 May 2026 07:28:26 GMT. 24h change -3.5pp, 24h volume $140.8K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-9
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-9
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-09T07:28:26.719Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.4pp |
| Δ 24h | -3.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $140.8K |
| Lifetime volume | $162.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $38.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 9, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 72%): Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 3.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 9h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x8a0b…d7e3` — 22,155.748 shares
- `0x212a…dbe8` — 13,244.71 shares
- `0xa06c…9d93` — 11,254.207 shares
- `0x32b4…8b21` — 6,957.988 shares
- `0xbb50…2e0c` — 6,053.863 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 52,850.878 shares
- `0x5aa2…d7d0` — 8,703.065 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 6,168.561 shares
- `0xff73…67e9` — 4,499.972 shares
- `0xbc1f…7631` — 4,387.12 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 159 |
| Window start | 2026-05-02T17:00:10.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-09T06:01:05.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 57¢ |
| Net change | -50.6pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-9` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-09T07:28:26.719Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-82k-on-may-9.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*