# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 03:58:25 GMT. 24h change -7.0pp, 24h volume $216.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-13
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T03:58:25.521Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -7.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $216.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $233.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $57.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 84%): Probability moved down 7.0pp in 24h with 3.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 12h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x25ea…fa5f` — 20,504.258 shares
- `0x14f7…232c` — 17,061.8 shares
- `0x29ea…701e` — 11,496.318 shares
- `0xa3de…111a` — 8,428.702 shares
- `0x9d8d…b8f8` — 6,999.937 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4699…e03c` — 6,234.99 shares
- `0x23be…f444` — 6,041.142 shares
- `0x780a…2d1d` — 5,025.158 shares
- `0x66ad…cc4e` — 5,000 shares
- `0x4775…59ba` — 4,696.17 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 156 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T17:00:05.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T03:57:04.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 28¢ |
| Net change | -27.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T03:58:25.521Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*