# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 04 May 2026 05:27:19 GMT. 24h change +0.6pp, 24h volume $136.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-4
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-4
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-04T05:27:19.207Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.9pp |
| Δ 24h | +0.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $136.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $177.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.7K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 4, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd453…4b1b` — 11,999.82 shares
- `0xc131…f290` — 11,499.996 shares
- `0x3c5a…0a4f` — 10,387.448 shares
- `0x3d8d…a7e9` — 10,000 shares
- `0x1a55…d660` — 7,008.654 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x78ad…45cc` — 28,617.21 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 7,711.64 shares
- `0xdb5a…3965` — 5,253.619 shares
- `0xdfc8…3602` — 4,532.106 shares
- `0x9449…7b43` — 4,525.05 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 157 |
| Window start | 2026-04-27T17:00:12.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-04T05:27:14.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 6¢ |
| Net change | -4.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-4` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-04T05:27:19.207Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-4.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*