# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 08:20:50 GMT. 24h change -1.0pp, 24h volume $154.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-5
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T08:20:50.978Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -1.0pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $154.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $172.5K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $42.2K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 8h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x51eb…6bfa` — 16,999.989 shares
- `0x0813…5b41` — 10,309.972 shares
- `0xda6b…a403` — 8,654.09 shares
- `0x3301…4dd8` — 7,349.825 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 5,000 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4699…e03c` — 18,669.88 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 9,246.69 shares
- `0x1c51…0e7f` — 8,622.914 shares
- `0xdb5a…3965` — 7,775.222 shares
- `0xdea2…a81e` — 4,763.624 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 158 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T19:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T08:19:19.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 50¢ |
| Net change | -49.1pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T08:20:50.978Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-5.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*