# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 1% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 06 May 2026 05:43:11 GMT. 24h change -4.1pp, 24h volume $139.1K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-6
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-6
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-06T05:43:11.717Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **1¢** (1%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -4.1pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $139.1K |
| Lifetime volume | $150.9K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $30.2K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 6, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 74%): Probability moved down 4.1pp in 24h with 4.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 10h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 23,847.44 shares
- `0xafe6…8192` — 15,716.073 shares
- `0xf800…daf7` — 4,999.936 shares
- `0xe6f3…4526` — 4,018.89 shares
- `0x5f65…2a00` — 3,827.76 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x4699…e03c` — 22,981.91 shares
- `0xbc1f…7631` — 6,311.868 shares
- `0xff73…67e9` — 4,407.333 shares
- `0xdea2…a81e` — 3,019.05 shares
- `0x301d…1fd8` — 2,643.98 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 155 |
| Window start | 2026-04-29T17:00:06.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-06T03:17:04.000Z |
| Range | 1¢ → 7¢ |
| Net change | -0.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-6` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 6? — 1% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-06T05:43:11.717Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-84k-on-may-6.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*