# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 12 May 2026 17:49:46 GMT. 24h change -0.7pp, 24h volume $223.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-12
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-12
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-12T17:49:46.959Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.7pp |
| Δ 1w | -13.0pp |
| 24h volume | $223.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $287.7K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $239.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |
| UMA status | `proposed` |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 12, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

**UMA status:** `proposed` — verify before treating moves as new information.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 65%): Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x29ea…701e` — 18,883 shares
- `0x3ee3…5e9a` — 11,000 shares
- `0x7e04…c004` — 11,000 shares
- `0x9b6b…9a8a` — 10,000 shares
- `0x4bdc…441c` — 9,350 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6dbd…ceea` — 7,007.007 shares
- `0xf5dd…a04e` — 7,007.007 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 6,445.818 shares
- `0x23be…f444` — 6,006.006 shares
- `0x19fc…b4e3` — 5,999.329 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 169 |
| Window start | 2026-05-05T18:00:03.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-12T17:48:11.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 17¢ |
| Net change | -13.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-12` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-12T17:49:46.959Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-12.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*