# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Wed, 13 May 2026 06:44:48 GMT. 24h change -0.9pp, 24h volume $163.9K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-13
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-13
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-13T06:44:48.134Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | +0.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $163.9K |
| Lifetime volume | $191.1K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $55.9K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 13, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 9h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x29ea…701e` — 22,053.919 shares
- `0x3d8d…a7e9` — 10,501.667 shares
- `0x6ca9…37d1` — 8,509.05 shares
- `0xe907…cff6` — 6,193.13 shares
- `0x3c5a…0a4f` — 5,544.036 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x78ad…45cc` — 47,719.44 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 6,139.335 shares
- `0x19fc…b4e3` — 5,999.907 shares
- `0x6dbd…ceea` — 3,864.67 shares
- `0xdb5a…3965` — 1,782.508 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 159 |
| Window start | 2026-05-06T17:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-13T06:44:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 14¢ |
| Net change | -14.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-13` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 13? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-13T06:44:48.134Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-13.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*