# Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 0% implied probability of YES as of Tue, 05 May 2026 05:17:38 GMT. 24h change -0.7pp, 24h volume $164.0K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-5
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-5
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-05T05:17:38.705Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **0¢** (0%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.1pp |
| Δ 24h | -0.7pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $164.0K |
| Lifetime volume | $223.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $43.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 5, 2026

**Source:** the market description on Polymarket; final settlement via UMA optimistic oracle.

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
> 
> Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 11h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xd453…4b1b` — 18,193.129 shares
- `0x3d8d…a7e9` — 9,839.9 shares
- `0x3301…4dd8` — 7,169.599 shares
- `0x2aab…b891` — 5,156.951 shares
- `0xc131…f290` — 4,999.909 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 6,936.03 shares
- `0x5aa2…d7d0` — 5,100 shares
- `0xddf2…19a3` — 2,337.642 shares
- `0x6801…026b` — 2,200 shares
- `0x6786…c034` — 2,000 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 154 |
| Window start | 2026-04-28T20:00:21.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-05T05:17:05.000Z |
| Range | 0¢ → 49¢ |
| Net change | -48.9pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-5` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? — 0% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-05T05:17:38.705Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-above-86k-on-may-5.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*