# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 94% implied probability of YES as of Sun, 10 May 2026 14:52:50 GMT. 24h change +44.5pp, 24h volume $218.7K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-10-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-10-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-10T14:52:50.445Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **94¢** (94%) |
| Δ 1h | +2.5pp |
| Δ 24h | +44.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $218.7K |
| Lifetime volume | $218.8K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $41.8K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 10, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 10 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 10 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved up 44.5pp in 24h with 5.2× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 1h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 25,066.521 shares
- `0x5a06…201b` — 6,339.98 shares
- `0xb462…fc89` — 4,746.326 shares
- `0xd4f9…f619` — 4,615.66 shares
- `0x689c…6b1e` — 2,964.333 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 38,967.414 shares
- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 12,548.584 shares
- `0xfdc0…e6a1` — 1,980 shares
- `0x7d8f…4a52` — 1,651.131 shares
- `0x726b…9daa` — 1,082.68 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 47 |
| Window start | 2026-05-08T17:00:08.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-10T14:52:06.000Z |
| Range | 50¢ → 94¢ |
| Net change | +44.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-10-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? — 94% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-10T14:52:50.445Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-10-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*