# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 25% implied probability of YES as of Mon, 11 May 2026 03:30:59 GMT. 24h change -25.5pp, 24h volume $288.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-11-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-11-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-11T03:30:59.686Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **25¢** (25%) |
| Δ 1h | -18.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -25.5pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $288.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $288.3K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $40.9K |
| Spread | 1.00pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 11, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 25.5pp in 24h with 7.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 12h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 33,052.282 shares
- `0xfae4…299f` — 19,999.999 shares
- `0x3379…f0b4` — 7,466.06 shares
- `0xbf5f…c035` — 1,515.704 shares
- `0x1590…adaf` — 1,252.667 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 30,966.551 shares
- `0x3885…ca77` — 18,728.79 shares
- `0x8c68…072d` — 4,799.997 shares
- `0xfdc0…e6a1` — 3,959.994 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 3,824.604 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 35 |
| Window start | 2026-05-09T18:00:07.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-11T03:21:06.000Z |
| Range | 25¢ → 76¢ |
| Net change | -25.5pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-11-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? — 25% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-11T03:30:59.686Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-11-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*