# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 3% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 16 May 2026 11:43:01 GMT. 24h change -46.6pp, 24h volume $207.2K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-16T11:43:01.910Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **3¢** (3%) |
| Δ 1h | +1.0pp |
| Δ 24h | -46.6pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $207.2K |
| Lifetime volume | $207.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $48.4K |
| Spread | 0.30pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 16, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 16 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 15 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 16 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 4h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xfae4…299f` — 29,999.945 shares
- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 26,012.855 shares
- `0xe5a6…5c6b` — 6,238.845 shares
- `0x7d49…4f7c` — 4,575 shares
- `0x6bb2…732e` — 2,370.655 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0xe9c6…95c9` — 48,425.943 shares
- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 16,806.887 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 12,340.24 shares
- `0xf70e…81df` — 3,300 shares
- `0xbf5f…c035` — 2,583.714 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 43 |
| Window start | 2026-05-14T17:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-16T11:42:20.000Z |
| Range | 3¢ → 64¢ |
| Net change | -46.4pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? — 3% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-16T11:43:01.910Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-16-2026.
```

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*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*