# Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?

> Polymarket binary prediction market. 2% implied probability of YES as of Sat, 23 May 2026 06:43:53 GMT. 24h change -47.9pp, 24h volume $202.3K.

**Canonical URL:** https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-23-2026
**Polymarket source:** https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-23-2026
**Category:** Crypto
**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026
**Last fetched:** 2026-05-23T06:43:53.066Z

## Live snapshot

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YES probability | **2¢** (2%) |
| Δ 1h | -0.2pp |
| Δ 24h | -47.9pp |
| Δ 1w | +0.0pp |
| 24h volume | $202.3K |
| Lifetime volume | $202.4K |
| Liquidity (orderbook depth) | $65.5K |
| Spread | 0.10pp |

## Resolution

**Resolves by:** May 23, 2026

**Source:** https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

### Market description (verbatim from Polymarket)

> This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 22 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 23 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 22 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 23 '26 12:00 ET candle.
> 
> If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
> 
> The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
> 
> Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

## Active signals

Signals are deterministic rules with explicit confidence (0..1). They describe *why a price moved* — they are not trade recommendations and do not predict the outcome.

- **momentum** (confidence 95%): Probability moved down 47.9pp in 24h with 3.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- **resolution_risk** (confidence 40%): Expires in 9h.

## Top holders

**Top YES holders**

- `0xbc9b…1b9c` — 21,994.778 shares
- `0x14e2…282f` — 19,824.656 shares
- `0x80cc…b5a4` — 10,479.873 shares
- `0xa758…444d` — 4,480.668 shares
- `0xbf8d…80c8` — 3,684.959 shares

**Top NO holders**

- `0x0fe4…01b7` — 32,510.093 shares
- `0x71a7…6fcf` — 30,507.39 shares
- `0x6e1d…d0fa` — 8,812.037 shares
- `0x4699…e03c` — 3,501 shares
- `0x45e1…5934` — 3,320.496 shares

## 7-day price-history summary

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Sample count | 33 |
| Window start | 2026-05-21T17:00:13.000Z |
| Window end | 2026-05-23T00:05:04.000Z |
| Range | 4¢ → 61¢ |
| Net change | -46.0pp |

Full series available as JSON via `GET https://orrery.me/api/markets?slugs=bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-23-2026` — the chart on the human page is rendered from this same data.

## Cite this

```
Orrery. "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? — 2% on Polymarket."
Retrieved 2026-05-23T06:43:53.066Z from https://orrery.me/markets/bitcoin-up-or-down-on-may-23-2026.
```

---

*Orrery is a public, read-only intelligence terminal for prediction markets. Not affiliated with Polymarket. Not investment, legal, or tax advice. Numbers are fetched live; citation timestamp matters. See <https://orrery.me/disclaimer>.*